Euro 2008 - Observations - 2

It's time for some more observations, with every team having played two games.

1) Goodbye, Greece!

The seemingly inevitable has happened. Greece will not be defending their 2004 crown, having been unceremoniously dumped out of Euro 2008 after just two games, in which they haven't scored a goal, let alone gained any points.

As said earlier, the Greeks' biggest mistake was not to introduce enough new blood into the side. There is a distinct sameness between the 2004 and 2008 line-ups, and really, the best European nations were not going to fall for the Greeks' ultra-defensive, counter-attacking, set-piece oriented style of play this time around.

Changes are needed, right from the very top. Manager Otto Rehhagel may be a national hero in Greece, and rightfully so, but the Greek side is in need of a rejuvenation before it kicks off its 2010 qualification campaign.

2) Double Dutch!

Amazingly, the Netherlands took their sparkling form against Italy into its second game against France, and has now put a combined total of seven goals past the two reigning World Cup finalists.

There is a lot to like about this Dutch team. Marco van Basten appears to have finally got the balance right in his team, after tinkering since taking over four years ago. The midfield combination of two screeners (Engelaar and de Jong), as well as two creative midfielders in Sneijder and van der Vaart, as well as the workhorse Dirk Kuyt on the right-flank, the Dutch are scoring goals at will. And so far, the defence has held firm, despite some nervy moments against the French.

The defence is still the biggest issue, and I'm sure nations will attempt to exploit this later in the tournament. But when players of the ilk of Arjen Robben, Robin van Persie, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and John Heitinga are left warming the bench, there will be many furrowed brows on the faces of opposing managers.

3) Unsung Heroes

There have been many unsung heroes during this tournament, especially from the pre-tournament unfancied teams. By unsung heroes, I refer to players who quietly go about playing their role for their side, often without the plaudits that are gained by strikers and midfielders.

Orlando Engelaar and Nigel de Jong fit this category for the Netherlands, Marcos Senna for Spain, Tomas Galasek for the Czech Republic, Paul Codrea for the surprise-packets Romania, and even Konstantin Zyrianov for Russia.

These are just a number of players who play pivotal roles for their respective sides, and yet they hardly draw any acclaim in the wash-up. Zyrianov is an exception, given his priceless, match-winning goal that has kept Russia's qualification hopes alive. But many holding midfielders have been instrumental in their teams' successes thus far, and all power to them, as their sides would have an awful balance without their presence and industriousness.

4) Will the real Spain please stand up (permanently)?

It only took two games for Spanish problems to resurface. After destroying Russia in its opening game, Spain laboured to its lucky 2-1 victory over an admittedly better-organised Swedish outfit. The starting XI was identical, and two of Luis Aragones' substitutes made second appearances against the Swedes (Fabregas and Santi Cazorla).

Their midfield was stifled against Sweden, with Barcelona duo Xavi and Andres Iniesta struggling to impose themselves on the game, before they were both withdrawn simultaneously before the hour mark. Both had significant impact against the Russians, and their partnership will be critical in determining how far Spain advance through the tournament.

Fernando Torres and David Villa seem to be striking up a more potent partnership with each game, as against Sweden it was Torres who looked the more threatening. Both got their names on the scoresheet, which will no doubt please Spanish supporters, but problems still remain.

Aragones will be hoping that the injury to defensive stalwart Carles Puyol is not serious. Puyol endured an interrupted past season at the Camp Nou, but his presence at the heart of the Spanish backline is necessary, as his replacement against Sweden, Valencia's Raul Albiol, never really looked comfortable. If anything, it was a blight on Sweden that he wasn't tested more significantly than he was.

Nevertheless, Spain will avoid the Netherlands in the quarter-finals, but a potential meeting with France, Italy or Romania awaits. And as the Spaniards well know, anything can happen in a knockout tournament.

5) Biggest Surprises

1. Croatia

Well, I was certainly made to eat humble pie after Croatia surprisingly knocked off tournament favourites Germany!

But really, the Croatia that played Germany was a different outfit to the one that played Austria, surely?!

Croatian manager Slaven Bilic is a canny character. In my previous blog I flagged that the Croatians were in need of some more attacking flair, after never testing the Austrian goal after going 1-0 up in their opening game. So what does he do in team selection? Why, drop a striker of course?!

In came young left-winger Ivan Rakitic at the expense of Mladen Petric, and all of a sudden, Croatia looked more threatening. Niko Kranjcar looked more dangerous in a slightly more central role, Luka Modric continued his sublime form, and Ivica Olic once again ran himself into the ground, but this time with the reward of securing Croatia's priceless second goal.

More performances like that, and Croatia would certainly pose a threat to any side in the tournament. But, in its first two games, we have seen the best and worst of Croatia, and there is no doubt that a performance like the one against Austria in the knockout stages would result in certain elimination against high quality opposition.

2. Romania

The Romanians appeared in this section of my last blog, but they are worthy of their place again. Romania has taken two points off both World Cup finalists, and against Italy, it could have easily been all three.

Mutu's penalty has been a key talking point, inevitably. Buffon's save was stupendous, and Mutu was understandably distraught for the rest of the game before being substituted. But outside the penalty miss, Romania certainly had its chances against the makeshift Italian backline.

Inspirational captain Christian Chivu was unlucky to have his blasted free-kick cannon back off the post after a deflection, whilst Gabriel Tamas and Razvan Rat both had Buffon sprawling to cover their efforts from distance. Mutu was a constant thorn in the Italians' side, and he could've added to his predatory strike, as well.

Don't discount a possible Romanian win against the Dutch on Tuesday. The Dutch are already through, and moreover, Romania beat the Netherlands en route to Euro 2008 in Bucharest, and achieved a credibtable 0-0 draw in Amsterdam.

6) Biggest Disappointments

1. Poland

The Poles have been their own worst enemies in this tournament. Certainly, nobody really expected them to beat Germany in the opening game, but a 1-1 draw with Austria? For a team that topped Portugal in qualifying, achieving an impressive 2-1 victory over the Portuguese in Warsaw, it has been a disappointing campaign for the Poles.

Sure, it was a last-minute penalty conceded against a team which had a vocal home support behind it. But Austria had chances to even win the game earlier on, as Polish goalkeeper Artur Boruc kept Poland's slim ascendancy in tact.

Poland now faces almost certain elimination, having to defeat already-qualified Croatia while hoping that Austria pulls off a monumental upset by defeating Germany. It has been a bel0w-par campaign for the Poles, which will now focus on qualifying for the World Cup in 2010, with or without journeyman Dutch manager Leo Beenhakker.

2. Italy

There was definitely more to like about Italy's second performance than the first. For starters, the inclusion of veteran Alessandro Del Piero brought target man Luca Toni into the game more regularly, and on another day he may have bagged one or two goals.

Daniele De Rossi also proved to be a better option than Massimo Ambrosini in an attacking sense, but the Italians still have problems, and remarkably some of them are in defence.

Long renowned for its stingy defence, the inexperienced pairing of Cristian Panucci and Giorgio Chiellini looked vulnerable at times, whilst seasoned right-back Gianluca Zambrotta is having an indifferent time of things, and it was his uncharacteristic error that allowed Mutu to steal in and put Romania in front.

At least under-fire manager Roberto Donadoni changed things up from the Dutch game, but after failing again to secure all three points, they now face a World Cup final rematch with the French, and even a win might see them eliminated if the Dutch fall to Romania. It promises to be an intriguing morning on Wednesday.

7) Predictions

Unfortunately, I am not Nostradamus, as my measly three out of eight correct result predictions (let alone margins) will testify! Nonetheless, here is how I think the final group games will pan out.

Switzerland 1-1 Portugal

It has been a terribly dissatisfying performance by both the host nations, especially from the more-fancied Swiss. Losing Alexander Frei in the tournament's first game was a massive body-blow, from which the Swiss never really recovered. Notwithstanding this disappointment, I expect them to go out with a flourish, and at least take a point off Portugal in what is the first of the tournament's dead-rubbers.

Turkey 1-2 Czech Republic

I am really hoping that this game doesn't end in a draw. Neither team should have the indignity of bowing out of such a high-standard tournament at the group stage due to a penalty shootout. So without any logic, I'm backing the Czechs, purely because on the balance of the first two games, they have performed marginally better than the Turks. Turkey were much improved against Switzerland, though, so I wouldn't be surprised if they edge it.

Austria 0-3 Germany

Expect the Germans to bounce back strongly after being comprehensively beaten by Croatia. The strike partnership of Mario Gomez and Miroslav Klose hasn't really clicked yet in this tournament, and time is surely running out for them to gel before one is sacrificed. Bastian Schweinsteiger's needless sending off against Croatia will probably jeopardise his desire for further game-time should Germany make the knockout phase, as well. For Austria, a competitive performance will be considered a success. So far, the one point from six could be considered somewhat of an achievement given all the negative predictions pre-tournament.

Poland 2-1 Croatia

I'm tipping an upset here. It's not that I don't rate Croatia, but Poland will surely be up for this one knowing that miracles can happen elsewhere. Slaven Bilic has already said that he plans to omit anybody on a yellow card, meaning Robert Kovac, Darijo Srna, Josip Simunic and Luka Modric will be rested, and this may be the opportunity for Poland to at least keep their end of the bargain, and hope that Austria can somehow pull off the impossible against Germany.

Netherlands 2-0 Romania

It's hard to tip against the Netherlands at the moment. Van Basten will surely look to get more time in the legs of Robben and van Persie, and even if he chooses to rest players, the Dutch have incredible depth and can surely cover for a few stars in what for them is essentially a dead-rubber. For Romania, I expect their run to come to a close here. They have certainly not been out of place in the "Group of Death", and I'm sure the French aren't looking forward to playing them again (twice) in World Cup Qualifying for 2010.

France 1-2 Italy

The most intriguing match-up without a doubt. The French will still have revenge on their minds from the World Cup final, but I'm still backing the Italians to once again defeat them. Italy goes into the game in slightly better form despite being level on points, and there was enough improvement to suggest that they'll be up for this challenge. France will look to Henry and Ribery to provide the magic, but Ribery looks tired after a long season, and Henry isn't the same player of a few years ago. It's time for some rebuilding at Clairefontaine.

Spain 2-0 Greece

Another dead-rubber. Footballing purists won't be too upset at Greece's elimination, as they once again exhibited an ultra-defensive game style. The Spanish will surely use this game as a confidence booster for the knockout round. Confidence is important for Spain, with many players in the line-up relying on a positive attitude to get the job done. They should have little trouble against the Greeks.

Russia 1-0 Sweden

I think the Swedes' last-gasp loss to Spain will really sting the side. Sweden was good value for its point against Spain, but to have it stolen away at the very end will have knocked the stuffing out of them. Russia, meanwhile, will have grown in confidence after a narrow win over Greece. After its poor display against Spain, Guus Hiddink will undoubtedly be happier with his side's effort against Greece, and I think they'll carry this confidence into its last game, and give Hiddink yet another chance at European glory.