Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Euro 2008 - Observations - 1

Well, with every team having played their opening games at Euro 2008, it is time for some preliminary observations.

1) The death of defensive football?

In the first eight games, fans have been wowed by the attacking performances of Germany, Portugal, Netherlands and Spain. Each played expansive, exciting football, with a particular focus on quick movement. It is no surprise, then, that many goals have come on the counter-attack.

Meanwhile, perennial defensive teams, with Italy leading the way, have been found wanting in the early stages of the tournament. Even teams who went ahead early in their games, such as Croatia, were nearly caught out as they went back into their shells and attempted to preserve a single-goal lead.

Hopefully there is more attacking football to come, and the 16 goals scored so far is added to at a rapid rate.

2) Don't write off the Italians

It's true. Italy was comprehensively beaten by a super-impressive Dutch team in their opening game. In fact, the Azzurri was beaten at its own game, with two sweeping counter-attacks bringing two outstanding goals, as the Italian defence was unable to withstand the onslaught.

Now, bottom of Group D, Italy faces must-win games against stubborn Romania and losing World Cup finalists France. But in this writer's opinion, write them off at your peril.

Italy very seldom puts two ordinary performances together, and will surely come out (if only slightly) more attack-minded against Romania.

Manager Roberto Donadoni lost the Netherlands game with his team selection in my view. Starting Milan veteran Massimo Ambrosini ahead of Daniele De Rossi was strange, as was the decision to wait until after the hour mark to introduce the in-form Alessandro Del Piero. Even Antonio Cassano looked lively when he was (eventually) brought on.

The form of Luca Toni was worrying. The jury's out on his major international tournament form, and with a giant Romanian defence to contend with on Friday, he would certainly be better served with a strike partner capable of unlocking the defence.

Nevertheless, Italy are by no means out of contention, and should be able to go one better than their French rivals and get past Romania.

3) Biggest Surprises

1. The Netherlands

I don't think too many Dutch supporters could have anticipated their comprehensive display against Italy. Everything went right. Van Basten was spot on with his team selection, the defence held firm, a still-hotly debated goal has since been ruled legitimate, and they even showed signs of the "Total Football" of years gone past.


There is still a long way to go, but van Basten appears to have found a very promising mix with his Starting XI and extraordinarily deep bench. To be able to cover for Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben, and leave out classy players like Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and the ever-improving Ibrahim Afellay, many people I'm sure will be sitting up and taking notice.


Unheralded players like Orlando Engelaar and Nigel de Jong fulfilled their jobs manfully, Giovanni van Bronckhorst played probably his best game for years, Khalid Boulahrouz teased Chelsea supporters by playing an outstanding game, and Ruud van Nistelrooy was predatory as usual.


Throw in the guile and creativity of Wes Sneijder and Rafael van der Vaart, and the Netherlands make for a formidable line-up. If they can put in a similar performance against the desperate French, who knows how far they could go.

2. Romania

Staying in Group B, it looks as if everyone but the French heeded the warnings about Romania not just participating in Group B "to make up the numbers."

Judging by the listless French performance, they were either expecting an easier time of things against the unheralded Romanians, or they were just extremely poor.

Notwithstanding, Romania were full credit for their draw. Star player and captain Cristian Chivu led the team magnificently, and Adrian Mutu represetned a constant thorn in the French's side.

What they lack in star quality, the Romanians certainly make up for in work ethic and constant box-to-box running. Keep in mind, that Romania actually finished above the Netherlands in qualification, scoring 26 goals and conceding just 7 en route to Austria and Switzerland.

4. Biggest Disappointments

1. Croatia

It might seem silly to label one of the first round winners as "disappointing", but really, Croatia were lucky to escape with a 1-0 win against touted whipping-boys Austria.

After going ahead to a Luka Modric penalty in the 4th minute, Croatia failed to test Austrian keeper Jurgen Macho even once more, and had to soak up long periods of pressure as the Austrians, roared on by the parochial Viennese crowd, went in search of an equaliser.

The absence of Eduardo is still causing significant issues for Croatia, which lack a cutting edge in attack. Both Ivica Olic and Mladen Petric are workhorses (when Olic was substituted he looked on the verge of collapse), but they lack the killer instinct oft-required at these major tournaments.

At the back, the central pairing of Josip Simunic and Robert Kovac looked slow and vulnerable at times, whilst Portsmouth midfielder Niko Kranjcar was completely anonymous until he was substituted on the hour.

Luke Modric represents Croatia's best chance of progressing through the tournament. All attacking moves went through him, and he possesses the class his teammates seem to be lacking at present.

Smart money had Croatia at least reaching the semi-finals after an impressive qualification campaign. But the Croats face Germany next, and they will need to substantially improve on their first performance if they are to win anything out of this fixture.

2. France

Obviously Italy were the biggest disappointments in Group B's opening fixtures in terms of results, but the French certainly weren't too far behind.

France's performance lacked creativity, believe it or not. Despite having some of the best attacking players in Europe, namely Franck Ribery, Karim Benzema, Nicolas Anelka and Florent Malouda, the French were only able to fashion one shot on target in 90 minutes.

This is a fairly old French team, with Gregory Coupet between the sticks, the evergreen Lilian Thuram and Willy Sagnol still in defence and Claude Makelele patrolling in midfield. French fans were given a glimpse into the future when selection bolter Batefimbi Gomis and the seemingly Arsenal-bound Samir Nasri were brought on late in the game, but really, it was too late by then.

This is the last chance for the current French side to lift silverware, and the match against the Netherlands on Friday represents a golden opportunity for the side to fend off the milling doom-sayers.

3. Russia

Has Guus Hiddink's magical touch at major tournaments run out?

Russia's performance against Spain was nothing short of terrible. Hiddink gambled on two central defenders who had a combined total of 16 caps, in a move that spectacularly backfired, as both Roman Shirokov and Denis Kolodin looked spectacularly out of their depth, and were run ragged by David Villa and Fernando Torres. Surely the more experienced Berezutsky twins will come into consideration for the Greece game.

The isolation of Roman Pavlyuchenko up front didn't work, either. Despite getting his name on the scoresheet late on, he was constantly facing two or three defenders, and as the Spanish midfield gained the ascendancy, he drifted out of the game.

The Spanish defence looked vulnerable at times, and Russia could indeed have scored more than the one goal they totalled. But the defensive-minded formation didn't allow for much in attack, as the wet pitch, coupled with some lazy passing, made life extremely difficult.

Vladimir Bystrov played a decent cameo after coming off the bench at half time, but he was subsequently withdrawn himself just 25 minutes later. Dmitri Sychev, the so-called "Russian Michael Owen", was completely anonymous in the first half, whilst the central midfield trio of Sergei Semak, Igor Semshov and Konstantin Zyrianov were too often forced to lie deep in midfield as Iniesta and Xavi dictated play.

Semak in particular, brought in to replace the suspended midfield talisman Andrei Arshavin, didn't influence the game as much as Hiddink would've liked, and he will need to be at his creative best if Russia are to triumph in its must-win game against Greece.

Russia were tipped by many to emerge from what, on paper, seems a relatively even group with the exception of Spain. It now finds itself on the back-foot, but with winnable games against Greece and Sweden to come, they are not out of the mix for the second round yet.

5. Predictions

Here are my predictions for the next 8 games:

Czech Republic 0-2 Portugal

The Portuguese should have enough to get past the Czechs. The Czechs only squeaked past host-nation Switzerland, whilst Portugal were impressive against Turkey.

Switzerland 2-1 Turkey

Switzerland will still be reeling from the news that inspirational captain and leading striker Alexander Frei will miss the rest of the tournament, but they should still have enough in this must-win encounter to get past Turkey. There is a lot of bad blood between the nations following a spiteful World Cup qualifier playoff in 2005, but on home soil, Switzerland should edge this one. Turkey were disappointing against Portugal, and manager Fatih Terim will surely make changes to his side ahead of this match.

Croatia 1-3 Germany

Germany are like a well-oiled machine at the moment, getting the results they need, and even playing impressive football along the way. Croatia, as aforementioned, were disappointing against Austria, and unless they can produce a better display, the Germans should win this one.

Austria 0-2 Poland

Must-win game for Poland. It seems likely that Poland and Croatia will fight it out in their pivotal match on June 16 for the final qualifying spot after Germany, so the Poles, who weren't disgraced against Germany, should have enough to get past Austria.

Italy 2-0 Romania

Italy always seem to get results when they need them, and as said before, they very rarely put two poor performances together. The Romanians will give them a tough time, but Italy will surely win this one. I'd like to see Donadoni change things up, though. Del Piero should start, as well as De Rossi.

Netherlands 1-1 France

The French must get a result from this game to have any chance of progressing. If the Netherlands put in another display like the one against Italy, they could beat anybody. But look for the French to press forward more in attack, and they should be able to at least nick one goal against the Dutch. Certainly the pick of the second round of matches.

Sweden 1-2 Spain

Spain will have a tougher time of things against an experienced Swedish outfit. Sweden in fact defeated Spain during the qualifying tournament 2-0 in Stockholm, and so will certainly go into the game with confidence. But Spain's performance, especially the form of David Villa and Fernando Torres, who look to have finally struck up a deadly partnership, should be enough to get a win and book a place in Round 2.

Greece 0-1 Russia

It's strange. The Greeks are (figuratively) not the same side they were four years ago, but (in reality) it is the same side. Many of the 2004 squad are present in Austria & Switzerland, but really, they are among the weaker sides of the tournament. Russia entered the competition in better form, and I'm backing Guus Hiddink to get his side up for a narrow win here.

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